WITH THE UNITED STATES GONE, WHAT IS NEXT FOR SYRIA?
By: Joseph Chletsos
In October 2019, President Trump ordered the United States military out of northern Syria.[1] With the United States withdrawal from Syria, recent events have raised concern about what is next for the troubled country. Although Syria has had a history of civil unrest, recent events can be traced to the Syrian Civil War that began in 2011-12.[2] The United States under the Obama Administration in 2014, “joined an international coalition” to fight against the Islamic State that captured a large amount of Syrian territory.[3] As part of this coalition, the United States conducted airstrikes and began to build military bases in Syria “to assist ground operations against ISIS.”[4] “On April 7, 2017, the United States initiated its first direct military action against Assad’s forces after accusing them of carrying out another chemical weapons attack on civilians.”[5] Prior to the April 7, 2017, military action, the United States has been involved within Syria.[6]
In northwest Syria, from 2012 to 2018, the United States provided stabilization assistance in support of the Syrian opposition, local councils and civil society organizations to counter the influence of al-Qa’da (AQ) affiliate groups. This support included: mobilizing Syrian activists to undermine AQ efforts to recruit Syrian youth and disenfranchised Syrians; supporting independent media and civil society activists to expose AQ’s true nature; and, non-lethal assistance to units of the Free Syrian Army and Free Syrian Police who protected communities resisting AQ influence and control.[7]
Moreover, during the United States time Northeastern Syria:
[T]he United States . . . work[ed] with . . . partners in the Global Coalition to Defeat-ISIS to support immediate stabilization and early recovery efforts in areas liberated from ISIS control, including Explosive Remnants of War (ERW) removal, the restoration of essential services and building local capacity to support longer-term sustainability. The United States ha[d] led stabilization assistance efforts in areas of Syria liberated from ISIS control, but [sought] greater contributions from Coalition members and regional partners so that they can assume greater military and financial responsibility for securing the region.[8]
However, as recent events have proven, that with the United States withdrawal, Syria’s future is uncertain.[9]
Immediately following President Trump’s order to leave northern Syria in October 2019, the country of Turkey launched an “attack” on the Kurdish control areas of Syria, located near Turkey.[10] Turkey justifies that threat as the country “feels threated by the by the People's Protection Units (YPG), the military wing of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD).”[11] Turkey “insists the YPG is an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has fought for Kurdish autonomy in Turkey since 1984 and is designated as a terrorist group by the US and EU. The YPG and PKK share a similar ideology, but say they are separate entities.”[12]
More recently, in December 2019, mass displacement has occurred in the Maaret al-Numan region in southern Idlib of Syria.[13] The United Nations humanitarian agency OCHA, states that more than 235,000 people have fled the Idlib region, “amid air raids by Russian and Syrian Government forces.”[14] The Idlib region is “dominated by Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham,” who is a former al-Qaeda affiliate.[15] Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham has instructed the allied rebels and armed fighters to resist and fight against both the Russians and Syrian government forces.[16] In lieu of these remarks, the Syrian government of “Bashar al-Assad, which now controls 70% of Syria, has repeatedly pledged to take back th[is] area.”[17] Since the December 2019 events, the United Nations have “condemned” the actions and have called for de-escalation in the region.[18] However, it seems that civil unrest will continue to happen. In response, President Trump has spoken out against Russia on the killing of innocent civilians in the Idlib province.[19] In a tweet, President Trump tweeted: “‘Don’t do it!’ . . . accusing Russia and Iran along with the Syrian government led by Bashar al-Assad of ‘killing, or on their way to killing’ the civilians.”[20]
The latest events in Syria occurred on Sunday, December 29, 2019, when the United States performed airstrikes both in Iraq and Syria, as efforts to “target[] weapons and munitions depots that U.S. officials said were linked to Iran-backed militias allegedly involved in violence against coalition bases in recent months.”[21] Although much of the media attention surrounding the December 29, 2019 bombings has focused on the airstrikes in Iraq, Syria had two locations that were targeted and bombed.[22] As has been seen in Syria, Russia has taken a more active role in the northern part of Syria since the United States withdrawal in October 2019, and in response to the United States’ December 29, 2019, airstrikes, Russia has called the United States actions “unacceptable and counterproductive.”[23]
Although one cannot predict the future, one cannot help but think that the only future for Syria at least for the immediate future is continued civil unrest. Based upon the events since October 2019, it seems that the United States will continue to have a “presence” in Syria as well as Russia and Turkey in the northern region of the country, which could lead to future diplomatic tensions outside of the country of Syria.
#BlogPost #Syria #JosephChletsos
[1] Karen DeYoung et al., As Trump withdraws U.S. forces from northern Syria, his administration scrambles to respond, The Washington Post (Oct. 13, 2019, 9:58 PM), https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-orders-withdrawal-of-us-forces-from-northern-syria-days-after-pentagon-downplays-possibility/2019/10/13/83087baa-edbb-11e9-b2da-606ba1ef30e3_story.html.
[2] Syria, History, https://www.history.com/topics/middle-east/the-history-of-syria (last visited Jan. 6, 2020).
[3] Patrick Kingsley, Who Are the Kurds, and Why Is Turkey Attacking Them in Syria?, N.Y. Times, (Oct. 14, 2019), https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/14/world/middleeast/the-kurds-facts-history.html.
[4] Id.
[5] Syria, supra note 2.
[6] U.S. Relations With Syria, U.S. Dep’t of State, https://www.state.gov/u-s-relations-with-syria/ (last visited Jan. 6, 2019).
[7] Id.
[8] Id.
[9] Gul Tuysuz and Tara John, More than 235,000 people fled their homes in northwest Syria in the past two weeks, UN Says, CNN, (Dec. 27, 2019, 10:03 AM), https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/27/middleeast/syria-displaced-idlib-unocha-intl/index.html.
[10] Yerevan Saeed, Turkey’s attack on Kurds in Syria betrays those doing the fighting against ISIS – and dying, NBC News, (Oct. 14, 2019, 5:46PM), https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/turkey-s-attack-kurds-syria-betrays-those-doing-fighting-against-ncna1066061.
[11] Turkey v Syria’s Kurds: The short, medium and long story, BBC (Oct. 23, 2019), https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49963649.
[12] Id.
[13] UN: More than 235,000 flee northwest Syria violence, Aljazeera (Dec. 27, 2019), https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/235000-flee-northwest-syria-violence-191227140701873.html.
[14] Id.
[15] Id.
[16] Id.
[17] Id.
[18] UN calls for ‘de-esclation’ in Syria’s northwest, France 24 (Dec. 18, 2019, 7:14PM), https://www.france24.com/en/20191218-un-calls-for-de-escalation-in-syria-s-northwest.
[19] Kevin Liptak, Trump Warns Syria and its Russian and Iranian allies against ‘carnage’ in Idlib, CNN (Dec. 26, 2019), https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/26/politics/trump-syria-idlib-russia/index.html.
[20] Id.
[21] Alexander Smith and Ali Arouzi, Iran calls U.S. airstrikes in Iraq and Syria acts of ‘terrorism’, NBC News (Dec. 30, 2019, 6:32AM), https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-calls-u-s-airstrikes-iraq-syria-acts-terrorism-n1108441.
[22] Luke Harding, Russia and Iran condemn US airstrike in Iraq and Syria, TheGuardian (Dec. 30, 2019, 7:11AM), https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/30/tehran-condemns-us-airstrikes-in-iraq-and-syria-as-act-of-terrorism.
[23] Id.