Is Iran on the Verge of a Regime Change?

By: Joseph Chletsos

With the current political tensions between both the United States and Iran, there are a lot of questions on whether or not the country of Iran will witness a regime change. This conversation has been enhanced with the killing of Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani by an airstrike in Bagdad, Iraq.[1] Prior to the killing of General Qassem Soleimani, tensions began to flare in the country of Iraq, which has been attributed to the country of Iran. Beginning on December 27, 2019, a United States defense contractor was killed by an Iranian-backed militia via a rocket attack that was launched “on an Iraqi military compound near Kirkuk, Iraq . . . [t]he attack also injured four U.S. service members.”[2]  Following the killing of the United States’ defense contractor, a series of escalating events continued over a week.[3] Following the death of the United States’ defense contractor, the United State launched five retaliatory airstrikes on Iraqi soil, killing twenty-five “Iran-backed militia.”[4] Following the retaliatory airstrike on December 29, 2019, “protestors broke into the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad,” on December 31, 2019.[5] Following the December 31, 2019 protest, protestors returned on January 1, 2020.[6] However, during this protest, protestors “started a fire on the roof of the reception area. This prompted U.S. troops to fire tear gas at the crowd.”[7] Although the events here do not seem to be those of the Iranian government, the United States claimed these events were proxy attacks orchestrated by the Iranian General Qasem Soleimani.[8] The United States then launched an airstrike on Friday, January 3, 2020, near the Baghdad International Airport, killing General Qasem Soleimani, who is the “powerful head of Iran’s Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.”[9]

Following the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, “Iran state television suspended all programming following Soleimani’s death and displayed a photograph of him along with recitations from the Quran, signally a national tragedy.”[10] Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated “‘Soleimani was the international face of resistance’” and went on to state that “‘harsh retaliation is waiting.’” President Trump responded on Twitter stating: “‘General Qassem Soleimani has killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more…but got caught!’”[11] President Trump also stated, “‘[h]e was directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people, including the recent large number… of PROTESTERS killed in Iran itself.”[12]

Four days following the killing of Iran’s General, Qasem Soleimani, on January 7, 2020, Iran launched a series of missiles on United States military bases in Iraq that were housing United States troops.[13] Iran launched seventeen missiles toward the Al Asad airbase, and five missiles toward the Irbil airbase.[14] On January 8, 2020, President Donald Trump stated that the United States “had advance warning of Iran's missile assault on two Iraqi bases housing U.S. forces.”[15] While addressing the nation, President Trump announced that “Iran appeared to be ‘standing down’ and announced no military reprisal for the missile attack, but said ‘powerful sanctions’ would be imposed until Iran changed its ways.”[16] Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif defended the strike, stating Iran was acting in self-defense.[17] Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, went on to tweet, “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our citizens & senior officials were launched.”[18]

Most recently, on Tuesday, March 10, 2020, General Kenneth McKenzie Jr., commander of the United States Central Command, testified before the House Armed Services Committee.[19] General Kenneth McKenzie Jr. stated that the United States is moving air and missile defense capabilities into Iraq.[20] General Kenneth McKenzie Jr., stated that the military move is in response to protect “‘ourselves against another potential Iranian attack.’”[21]

I had the opportunity to talk to a “Jane Doe” whose family lives in the Country of Iran. While speaking to Jane Doe regarding the current political tensions, she informed me that the people of Iran know that the leadership is wrong/bad.[22] However, she informed me that there will be a regime change, speaking about the younger population who has demonstrated protests, but stated that it will just be a matter of time.[23] Moreover, she went onto state that the people of Iran, do not want the United States to force a regime change, that they the people of Iran, want to be the reason for the regime change.[24]

After much reflection, it makes sense. The United States is notorious for replacing leaders in this region of the world with new leadership that backfires and suppresses the population of that specific country. So should the United States assist with a regime change, or should the United States employ laissez-faire and let the people of Iran take this charge? This answer I’m sure will be answered within the next 10 years, as Jane Doe stated during our conversation.[25]

#Iran #InternationalLaw #BlogPost #JosephChletsos

[1] Carol E. Lee and Courtney Kube, Trump authorized Soleimani’s killing 7 months ago, with conditions, NBCNEWS (Jan. 13, 2020, 1:56 AM), https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/trump-authorized-soleimani-s-killing-7-months-ago-conditions-n1113271.

[2] Tara Law et al, Iran Vowed Retaliation After a U.S. Strike Killed a Top Iranian General. Here’s a Timeline of Recent Escalations, TIME (Jan. 3, 2020, 3:37 PM), https://time.com/5757228/us-iran-events-timeline/.

[3] Id.

[4] Id.

[5] Id.

[6] Id.

[7] Id.

[8] Id.

[9] Id.

[10]Id.

[11]Id.

[12] Id.

[13] Ayda Pourasad, Iran Launches Missile Attacks On Military Bases Housing U.S. Troops In Iraq, NPR (Jan. 7, 2020, 7:06 PM), https://www.npr.org/2020/01/07/794388410/military-base-housing-u-s-troops-in-iraq-has-been-attacked.

[14] Iran missile attack: Did Tehran intentionally avoid US casualties?, BBC (Jan. 8, 2020), https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51042156.

[15] John Bacon and Tom Vanden Brook, U.S. knew Iranian missiles were coming ahead of strike; Trump announces new sanctions, USA TODAY (Jan. 8, 2020, 6:42 PM), https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/01/08/us-officials-warned-missile-launch-iraq-bases-troops/2842200001/.

[16] Id.

[17] Pourasad, supra note 13.

[18] Id.

[19] Corey Dickstein, CENTCOM general: US is moving air and missile defense weapons into Iraq, Starts and Stripes (Mar. 10, 2020), https://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/centcom-general-us-is-moving-air-and-missile-defense-weapons-into-iraq-1.621925.

[20] Id.

[21] Id.

[22] In Person Interview with Jane Doe (actual name is being redacted to protect one’s family), (Jan. 8, 2020).

[23] Id.

[24] Id.

[25] Id.