Go Hard, Go Early: Analyzing New Zealand’s Approach to the COVID-19 Pandemic

By: Tessa Mallett

Nations have adopted a wide variety of approaches to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.[1] New Zealand’s elimination strategy, instituted in March, has been lauded internationally as one of the best approaches.[2] Since its implementation, New Zealand, with a population of five million,[3] has a total of less than two thousand confirmed cases and only twenty-five COVID-19 related deaths.[4] This blog post examines what made this strategy so effective, the state of the nation today, and the strategy’s potential longevity.

New Zealand’s elimination strategy is a four-tier alert system designed to eliminate COVID-19 in the entire country by preventing its “introduction and local transmission.”[5] Alert Level 4 is the most restrictive, requiring a nationwide lockdown and closing its borders, with less restrictions as the country shifts to lower tiers.[6] On March 26, 2020, New Zealand instituted Alert Level 4, closing all schools and non-essential businesses and requiring citizens to stay home unless absolutely necessary.[7] By the end of April, it moved to Alert Level 3, allowing non-essential businesses to reopen;[8] on June 8, 2020, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern moved to Level 1 and announced the country was free of COVID-19.[9]

Today, Auckland is on Alert Level 2 after New Zealand saw a spike in cases in August,[10] while the rest of the country remains at Level 1.[11] On October 1, 2020, New Zealand and Australia announced a travel bubble that will open October 16, 2020.[12] Currently, the bubble only allows New Zealanders to travel and they are restricted to New South Wales and the Northern Territory.[13] While it only allows limited travel right now, this remains a huge step toward New Zealand citizens experiencing the normalcy we all have been missing.[14]

New Zealand implementing its strategy early is one reason why it was successful.[15] Initially, New Zealand attempted to flatten the curve by applying its preexisting mitigation method for an influenza pandemic, which included instituting measures like social distancing.[16] However, after seeing that COVID-19 is not like pandemic influenza and the strategy’s success in other, similarly small nations, Ardern shifted to the elimination approach.[17] At the time, New Zealand had less than one thousand active cases, caused by both community transmission and individuals returning from foreign countries.[18] By instituting such swift measures before the virus spread quicker, the country was able to contain it and begin to eradicate it.[19]

Moreover, Ardern’s push for national unity encouraged New Zealand citizens to comply with the restrictions.[20] In addressing the public, Ardern was “careful to frame the government’s response as our response to the crisis.”[21] Thus, Arden made eliminating the virus a “national challenge” that everyone could do their part to beat.[22] Ardern also personally connected with citizens by doing regularly live broadcasts on Facebook Live.[23] During these live broadcasts, she explained the need for strict measures and related to fellow parents about the struggles of childrearing during the pandemic.[24] Polling indicated Ardern’s efforts worked, as one study in April found “88 percent of new Zealanders trusted the government to make the right decision about addressing COVID-19.”[25]

Despite its success, New Zealand’s elimination strategy is only a temporary solution. Being a wealthy nation permitted New Zealand to institute a nationwide lockdown in March.[26] However, it still had a major impact on its economy.[27] The tourism industry “brings in 21% of its foreign currency . . . and [] educating foreign students . . . is New Zealand’s fourth-largest export.”[28] With the closing of its borders and all schools during lockdown, citizens dependent on those industries undoubtedly struggled to make ends meet.[29] Should there be a resurgence in cases compelling Ardern to move back to Alert Level 4, New Zealand’s economy will be further damaged and it is unknown how long it will take to rebound.[30]

Further, the institution of the travel bubble risks returning citizens bringing the virus with them. The bubble allows New Zealand citizens who have not been in a hotspot to travel to Australia without being forced to quarantine for two weeks.[31] Yet, studies have shown that the virus can be spread through taking long-time flights.[32] While the bubble only goes one way for now, and requires citizens to quarantine upon their return to New Zealand, the lessening of restrictions creates the risk of a spike in cases.[33] Thus, shifting back to an Alert Level 4 is a possibility.

It is clear that the ultimate solution to completely eliminating the virus in New Zealand, and everywhere else, is a vaccine. Yet, it is unknown when one will be fully developed and be accessible to the general public.[34] According to the World Health Organization, there are “currently over 169 COVID-19 vaccine candidates under development, with 26. . . in the human trial phase.”[35] Consequently, New Zealand must adapt its plan to tackle new problems that develop as the wait for a vaccine continues. However, New Zealand’s aggressive and anticipatory approach to the pandemic so far indicates it will be ready to address these new issues.

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Image Statement: "New Zealand Flag Against NZ Southern Alps" by neeravbhattis licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0

[1] See Laurel Wamsley, Life During Coronavirus: What Different Countries are Doing to Stop the Spread, NPR (Mar. 10, 2020), https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/10/813794446/life-during-coronavirus-what-different-countries-are-doing-to-stop-the-spread.

[2] See Chloe Taylor, How New Zealand’s ‘Eliminate’ Strategy Brought New Coronavirus Cases Down to Zero, CNBC (May 5, 2020), https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/how-new-zealand-brought-new-coronavirus-cases-down-to-zero.html.

[3] Amy Gunia, Why New Zealand’s Coronavirus Elimination Strategy is Unlikely to Work in Most Other Places, Time Magazine (Apr. 28, 2020), https://time.com/5824042/new-zealand-coronavirus-elimination/.

[4] COVID-19: Current Cases, Ministry of Health (last visited Oct. 3, 2020), https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases.

[5] Michael G. Baker et al., New Zealand’s Elimination Strategy for the COVID-19 Pandemic and What is Required to Make it Work, 133 The New Zealand Med. J. 10, 11 (2020).

[6] Alert System Overview, New Zealand Government (last visited Oct. 4, 2020), https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-system/alert-system-overview/#alert-level-4-—-lockdown.

[7] Gunia, supra note 3.  

[8] Kaeli Conforti, Alert Level Restrictions to Begin in New Zealand This Week, Forbes (Apr. 25, 2020), https://www.forbes.com/sites/kaeliconforti/2020/04/25/alert-level-3-restrictions-to-begin-in-new-zealand-this-week/#45db06d16fdb.

[9] Successful Elimination of Covid-19 Transmission in New Zealand, 383 The New England J. of Med. E56(1), E56(1) (2020).

[10] Britt Clennett, New Zealand Back on Alert After 3 COVID-Free Months, ABC News (Aug. 18, 2020), https://abcnews.go.com/International/zealand-back-alert-covid-free-months/story?id=72440280.

[11] Alert System Overview, supra note 6.

[12] Ben Westcott, The Australia-New Zealand Travel Bubble is Finally Here -- But It’s Only One-Way for Now, CNN (Oct. 2, 2020), https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/australia-new-zealand-travel-bubble-limited-intl-hnk/index.html.

[13] Id.

[14] Id.

[15] Sonia Mazey & Jeremy Richardson, Lesson-Drawing from New Zealand and Covid-19: The Need for Anticipatory Policy Making, 19 The Pol. Q. 561, 563 (2020).

[16] Michael G Baker et al., New Zealand’s COVID-19 Elimination Strategy, 213 The Med. J. of Australia 198, 198 (2020).

[17] Baker et al., supra note 5.

[18] Successful Elimination of Covid-19 Transmission in New Zealand, supra note 9.

[19] Id.

[20] Id.

[21] Mazey & Richardson, supra note 15.

[22] Id. at 564.

[23] Uri Friedman, New Zealand’s Prime Minister May be the Most Effective Leader on the Planet, The Atlantic (Apr. 19, 2020), https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/04/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-leadership-coronavirus/610237/.

[24] Id.

[25] Id.

[26] Gunia, supra note 3.  

[27] Id.

[28] Id.

[29] Id.

[30] Id.

[31] Westcott, supra note 12.

[32] Maggie Fox, Coronavirus Can Spread on Airline Flights, Two Studies Show, CNN (Sept. 18, 2020), https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/18/health/coronavirus-airline-transmission-studies/index.html.

[33] Georgia Hitch, New Zealand Coronavirus Travel Bubble Set to get Underway, Here’s What We Know, ABC News (Oct. 2, 2020), https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-10-02/new-zealand-coronavirus-travel-bubble-australia-details/12726408.

[34] The Push for a COVID-19 Vaccine, World Health Organization (last visited Oct. 4, 2020), https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/covid-19-vaccines.

[35] Id.