The Biden Administration Recognized Turkey’s Massacre of Armenians Beginning in 1915 as a Genocide. How Will Turkey Respond?
By Joe Giacalone
The Armenian Genocide was a systematic and intended killing and deportation of ethnic Armenians that lived in Turkey, beginning in 1915 with the Armenian Massacre that occurred during World War I, and continued throughout the 1920s.[1] The number of Armenians that were killed during this time has been estimated to be between six-hundred thousand to one and a half million (600,000 – 1,500,000), with even more forcibly removed from Turkey during this time. In the academic world, Turkey’s actions have been recognized as a genocide for quite some time; outside of the academic world, this has not been the case. The Turkish Government, unsurprisingly, has refused to acknowledge the scope of its actions.[2] With President Biden stating this past week that Turkey’s actions were a genocide[3] (something that has no U.S. President in recent memory has done), there are new serious questions coming to the forefront on this issue, all predicated around a central theme: what does this mean for the Turkey-United States relationship going forward?
Before discussing potential issues, I want to make it clear that I support the Biden Administration’s acknowledgement of Turkey’s actions as a genocide directed toward Armenians. The focus of this post is to discuss some potential consequences of this action.
The first serious question that needs to be addressed regarding how President Biden’s statement affects the Turkey-United States relationship is whether Turkey is likely to state that its own actions were a genocide against its Armenian population. I do not think it should be surprising to anyone that this answer is a resounding “no.” First, no country is likely to publicly state that its actions in the past arose to the level of a genocide. There is not only a shame or embarrassment that comes with making this type of announcement at the international level, but there are also further questions about whether these actions lead to further legal questions about various issues of proving injuries, redress-ability, and damages against the Turkish government. Second, Turkey has refused to acknowledge that its actions amounted to a genocide and has disputed that characterization entirely.[4] Interestingly, and again perhaps unsurprisingly in wake of the recent United States-China talks where China reiterated the words that President Biden and his surrogates stated throughout his presidential campaign that the United States was a fundamentally racist country,[5] spokesman for Turkey’s President Erdogan Ibrahim Kalin stated that “We recommend that the U.S. President look at his own history and present.”[6] Based on these initial reactions, it appears that Turkey will not declare that its own actions were a genocide.
The second major issue that should be considered is what will happen to the Turkey-U.S. relationship regarding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in light of President Biden stating that Turkey’s actions were a genocide against Armenians. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952.[7] Turkey has been seen as a block in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East against Soviet (and now Russian) expansion, and the United States has had military installations in Turkey since 1953.[8] If President Biden’s acknowledgment of Turkey’s actions as a genocide cause a rift between Turkey and the United States that results in a strained NATO relationship, then there could be further issues with how NATO responds to Russian aggression going forward.
The third issue that should be considered in light of the Biden Administration’s statement, and directly tied to the second issue, is whether Turkey decides to align itself outside of NATO going forward. For the past several years, Turkey and Russia have worked together on several occasions, including Russia giving Turkey weapons defense systems because of the Syrian Civil War, ISIS, and other regional conflicts.[9] Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has worked with both the United States and Russia to acquire military technology from both to the dismay of the United States. Erdogan has shown a willingness to work with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is not an ideal position for the United States when the United States continues to have issues with Russia.
In short, President Biden has acknowledged that Turkey committed genocide against Armenians.[10] As the first president in United States history to explicitly acknowledge this publicly, it remains to be seen how it will affect the United States-Turkey relationship, especially in NATO and how Turkey approaches international relations with Russia going forward.
[1] History.com Editors, Armenian Genocide, history.com, Armenian Genocide - The Young Turks, Causes & Facts - HISTORY (originally published October 1, 2010, updated April 26, 2021).
[2] Onur Ant, Jennifer Jacobs and Gregory Korte, Turkey Summons U.S. Envoy After Biden’s ‘Genocide’ Statement, Bloomberg, Turkey Summons U.S. Envoy After Biden’s ‘Genocide’ Statement (msn.com) (April 24, 2021).
[3] The White House Briefing Room, Statement by President Joe Biden on Armenian Remembrance Day, whitehouse.gov, Statement by President Joe Biden on Armenian Remembrance Day | The White House (April 24, 2021).
[4] See Turkey Summons U.S. Envoy, supra note 2.
[5] Edith M. Lederer, US and China clash at UN meeting on combatting racism, The Associated Press, US and China clash at UN meeting on combatting racism (apnews.com) (March 19, 2021).
[6] See Turkey Summons U.S. Envoy, supra note 2.
[7] Palash Ghosh, Why is Turkey in NATO?, International Business Times, Why Is Turkey In NATO? (ibtimes.com) (June 26, 2012).
[8] Izmir Air Base Turkey - (cobases.com)
[9] Henri J. Barkey, Putin Plays Erdogan Like a Fiddle, Foreign Policy, Putin Plays Erdogan Like a Fiddle – Foreign Policy (September 3, 2019).
[10] See Statement by President Joe Biden, supra note 3.