Lessons from Hungary’s Failed Family Policy: Bigotry Impedes Success. By: Benjamin Kaiser

Birth rates around the globe have been in decline.[1] In 2021, more than 50% of nations had birth rates below the level needed to replace their dying populations.[2] It is estimated that only 6 nations will meet this replacement level in 2100.[3] This trend has concerned world leaders across the political spectrum.[4]  To address this issue, countries have implemented a variety of policies to incentivize their citizens having children.[5] Austria extended maternity leave to 2.5 years; Germany increased investments in childcare; Russia, Italy, and Greece offer citizens money for having children; and authorities in Tiwan have started holding singles mixers.[6]

Hungary’s approach to addressing population decline has been described as one of the world’s “most generous.”[7] The country spends more than five percent of its GDP on various subsidies.[8] Woman who have four children are exempt from income taxes and newlywed heterosexual couples are given large loans that are forgiven when they produce children. Further, the government offers matching grants for families purchasing a home[9] and for purchasing minivans.[10] However, despite the relative generosity of these programs, Hungary has failed to create a meaningful increase in birth rates.[11] Indeed, the nation’s fertility rate for the first half of 2024 was the lowest in the last decade.[12] The reasons for this failure are numerous, but many have pointed fingers at Hungary’s Stance toward immigrants, the poor, and LGBT families.[13]

Since  2010, Hungary has been led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has transformed Hungary into what the European Parliament has called a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy.”[14] Orban has long been critic of immigration and has spoken about his desire to maintain an “ethnic hegemony” and avoid Hungarians becoming a “people of mixed race.”[15]

This xenophobia is a key inspiration for Hungary’s family policies. Hungarian Secretary of State Katalin Novak stated that Hungary’s family policies are for “preserving western civilization, we also to say it openly, that Christian culture we would like to preserve.”[16] Further, Orban has explicitly framed his family policies as a possible solution to the great replacement conspiracy theory – a theory purporting that global elites are seeking to replace white westerners with black and brown immigrants.[17]

In this vein, Hungary’s family policies have been designed to only benefit certain kinds of Hungarians.[18] While immigrants do have some access to these programs,[19] access seems to only be limited to citizens who are already well off in Hungarian society.[20] One of Hungary’s own demographers has stated that that “scheme targets the most affluent people and increases inequality, which is probably a world first among such programs” and has created a “perverse redistribution.”[21] This is due in part to methods used to incentivize procreation.[22] As some Hungarian mothers have pointed out, an income tax break for having a fourth child is not enough to cover the costs of raising that child.[23] Poor mothers who pay little in taxes do not receive the same amount of relief as a rich mothers.[24] Matching grants for housing do little for families who do not have their own money to put toward buying a home.[25] This lack of benefit is felt by longstanding poor immigrant communities, such as the 750,000 Roma who live in the country.[26]

In addition to issue of access, Hungary’s family policies explicitly bar certain Hungarians from participating. Unmarried and divorced mothers cannot access many of the subsidies.[27] Further, LGBT Hungarians are also barred from receiving benefits, leaving out potentially hundreds of thousands of Hungarians.[28] The exclusion of LGBT couples fits within a larger scheme of discrimination.[29] Hungary has passed a series of laws which ban access to books and media that “promote or portray[s] …homosexuality”[30] and has banned same sex couples from adopting children.[31] In 2020, the country amended its constitution to exclude same sex couples from the definition of “family.”[32]

To be fair, many nations have failed to identify policy solutions that increase birth rates to the levels needed to replace their aging populations.[33] Solutions are evasive[34] and nations around the globe are trying out a number of ideas.[35] Finish demographer, Jessica Nisen, has stated that a citizenry’s trust in their government may be a key factor for maintaining high birth rates.[36] While birth rates in many nations declined during covid, Finish birth rates actually increased.[37] Nisen notes that Finish citizens report high trust in their government.[38] That trust likely led citizens to feel certainty for their future and security in growing their families.[39]

Regardless of the methods chosen, as nations continue to experiment with how to address population decline, they should learn from Hungary’s mistakes. Most notably, governments should adopt policies that are inclusive of all families regardless of their national origin, sexual orientation, gender identity, or marital status. It is clear from Hungary’s example that withholding benefits from significant portions of a national population will not lead to success no matter how much money is spent.

[1] Natalia Bhattacharjee et al, Global Fertility in 204 Countries and Territories, 1950-2021, with Forecasts to 2100: A Comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, 403 Lancet 2057, 2058 (2024).

[2] Id.

[3] Id. at 2057.

[4] Anna North, You Can’t Even Pay People to Have More Kids, Vox (Nov. 27, 2023),  https://www.vox.com/23971366/declining-birth-rate-fertility-babies-children.

[5] Id.

[6] Id.

[7]Marton Dunai & Valentina Romei, Why Hungary’s Lavish Family Subsidies Failed to Spur a Baby Boom, Fin. Times (Aug. 19, 2024), https://www.ft.com/content/3ea257fd-e8ef-4f05-9b89-c9a03ea72af5.

[8] Id.

[9] Hungary Tries for Baby Boom with Tax Breaks and Loan Forgiveness, BBC (Feb. 11, 2019), https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47192612.

[10] Jon Wertheim, Subsidies for Minivans: Hungarian Government Paying Citizens to Start Families, But Only the “Right” Kinds of Families, CBS News (July 19, 2020), https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hungary-paying-citizens-to-have-babies-60-minutes-2020-07-19/.

[11] See Dunai & Romei, supra note 7.

[12] See Dunai & Romei, supra note 7.  

[13] Dunai & Romei, supra note 7.

[14] Paul Kirby & Nick Thorpe, Who is Victor Orban, Hungarian PM with a 14 year Grip on Power, BBC (Feb. 13, 2024), https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67832416.

[15] Krisztina Than, Hungary’s Orban Says His Anti-Immigration Stance Not Rooted in Racism After Backlash, Reuters (July 28, 2022), https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungarys-orban-says-his-anti-immigration-stance-not-rooted-racism-after-backlash-2022-07-28/.

[16] Id.

[17] Shaun Walker, Hungarian Orban Trumpets Hungary’s ‘Procreation not Immigration’ Policy, The Guardian (Sept. 6, 2019), https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/06/viktor-orban-trumpets-far-right-procreation-anti-immigration-policy; See Rosa Schwartzburg, The White Replacement Theory Motivates Alt-Right Killers the World Over, The Guardian (Aug. 5, 2019), https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/05/great-replacement-theory-alt-right-killers-el-paso.

[18] Wertheim, supra note 10.

[19] See Generally Gabor Juhasz, Migrants Access to Social Protection in Hungary, 1 Migration and Social Protection in Europe and Beyond 211, 219 (Oct. 13, 2020), https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-51241-5_14.

[20] See Dunai & Romei, supra note 7.

[21] See Dunai & Romei, supra note 7.

[22] See generally Dunai & Romei, supra note 7.

[23] See Dunai & Romei, supra note 7.

[24] Hungary, supra note 9.

[25] Hungary, supra note 9.

[26] Hungary, supra note 9.

[27] Hungary, supra note 9.

[28] See generally Hungary, supra note 9.

[29] See Lili Rutai, From Censorship to Solidarity: The Surprising Consequences of Hungary’s LGBT Law, Radio Free Europe (Jan. 31, 2024), https://www.rferl.org/a/hungary-lgbt-law-censorship-solidarity/32800032.html.

[30] Id.

[31] Marton Dunai & Anita Komuves, Hungary Amends Constitution to Redefine Family, Limits Gay Adoption, Reuters (Dec. 15, 2020), https://www.reuters.com/article/lifestyle/hungary-amends-constitution-to-redefine-family-limits-gay-adoption-idUSKBN28P1N7/.

[32] Id.

[33] North, supra note 4.

[34] North, supra note 4.

[35] Jonty Bloom, How Should Countries Deal with Falling Birth Rates, BBC (May 19, 2024), https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c72p2vgd21no.

[36] North, supra note 4.

[37] North, supra note 4.

[38] North, supra note 4.

[39] North, supra note 4.